Live commerce is scaling unevenly across the globe: the US market is forecast at nearly $20 billion in 2026, China is expected to top $1.1 trillion, and Southeast Asia’s content commerce is on track for $77.9 billion, according to eMarketer estimates via Cardano Capital and Momentum Works’ September 2026 report covered by TNGlobal and e27.

The US figures show real momentum: eMarketer projects $19.8 billion in livestream retail ecommerce sales in 2026, up about 35% year over year, following a nearly 50% jump in 2025 to $14.64 billion. More than 58 million Americans are expected to buy through a livestream this year — almost one in four digital shoppers.

China remains a different universe. Alibaba’s Taobao Live, launched in 2016, anchors a market where livestreaming accounts for a far larger share of ecommerce than the mid-single-digit percentage it represents in the US. Conversion rates on live streams routinely run several times higher than static product pages.

Southeast Asia is the growth story: content commerce GMV across Shopee, TikTok Shop and Lazada reached $49.7 billion in 2025 (up 98%), with $33.8 billion transacted in the first half of 2026 alone — putting the region on track for 57% full-year growth. Content commerce now accounts for 37% of the region’s platform ecommerce GMV, up from 20% in 2024.

Momentum Works warns the attractive returns will be harder to sustain as more brands and creators develop similar capabilities — and notes AI livestreaming already costs 20-25% of a human operation while generating ~80% of the hourly GMV.

The takeaway for creators: live selling is a real channel now, not an experiment — but the window of easy returns is closing. Build live commerce skills (demonstration, real-time Q&A, scarcity mechanics) while the format still rewards early movers.